End-Use Load Profiles for the U.S. Building Stock: Residential Stock Model Calibration and Validation

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This Research Committee of IBPSA-USA webinar is free to view. End-use load profiles are critically important to understanding the time-sensitive value of energy efficiency, demand response, and other distributed energy resources. The project team is using an innovative approach that benefits from the reach, cost-effectiveness, and granularity of data-driven and physics-based building stock modeling using the ResStock™ and ComStock™ capabilities developed by NREL for the U.S. Department of Energy. These stock models will be informed by and validated against the best-available ground-truth data—from submetering studies, statistical disaggregation of whole-building interval meter data, and other emerging data sources. The resulting public database will be generated using the stock models and will not contain the ground-truth data used to develop and calibrate the models. This foundational data set will help electric utilities, grid operators, manufacturers, government entities, and research organizations make critical decisions about prioritizing research and development, utility resource and distribution system planning, and state and local energy planning and regulation. This presentation will provide an overview of the project, give details on the residential timeseries end-use calibration and validation efforts, and present a summary of the final products for the project.

Learning objectives:

  • State the various datasets available to validate building stock energy model timeseries data
  • Name important residential end-use loads that contribute to peak demand and annual energy consumption
  • Understand stock-level timeseries quantities of interest
  • Identify building stock characteristics that significantly impact the building stock timeseries loads


Anthony D. Fontanini, Ph.D.

Anthony joined the Residential Buildings Research Group at NREL in 2018. His research is focused on software development and timeseries validation of physics-based building stock energy models. He has led the development of a Los Angeles residential stock model for the “LA100: The Los Angeles 100% Renewable Energy” project. He is currently the calibration and validation lead for the “End-use load profiles for the U.S. Building Stock” project. The result of his research helps provide validated national-scale building stock tools that are used to quantify energy savings for residential efficiency measures and produce future scenarios for utility-scale load forecasting. Prior to working at NREL, Anthony was a member of technical staff at Fraunhofer CSE where he executed demonstrations of new technologies in the building envelope and developed attic and roof simulation tools. His background is in modeling heat transfer, fluid mechanics, contaminant transport, uncertainty quantification, and high-performance computing.

Restock, Comstock, NREL, stock models, end-use load profiles, building stock, existing building stock, residential stock modeling, residential stock calibration, residential stock validation
Anthony Fontanini